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Model calibration

When the model says 60%, does it hit about 60% of the time? This is every NBA player prop the model priced before tip and that's been graded, 5,902 lines since October 26, not just the picks we post.

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Lines graded5,9027 nights
Model score0.247about even with the market
Market score0.246no-vig prices
30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%50%60%70%80%90%100%Model said 52%, hit 51% of 3,435 linesModel said 57%, hit 59% of 1,281 linesModel said 62%, hit 61% of 621 linesModel said 67%, hit 61% of 274 linesModel said 72%, hit 64% of 90 linesModel said 77%, hit 73% of 44 linesModel said 90%, hit 92% of 157 lines What the model saidHow often it hit

How often it hit (bigger = more lines)Perfect calibrationWhat the market's price said for the same bets

Each dot is a group of bets, by how strongly the model leaned to one side. On the dashed line, the model's chances came true exactly as often as it said. The scores are Brier scores, the average squared miss on every line: lower is better, and both are measured on the same lines.

By how sure the model was

Model saidLinesHitMarket said
50% to 55%model average 52%3,43551%51%
55% to 60%model average 57%1,28159%54%
60% to 65%model average 62%62161%56%
65% to 70%model average 67%27461%59%
70% to 75%model average 72%9064%58%
75% to 80%model average 77%4473%57%
80% to 100%model average 90%15792%70%

By stat

StatLinesModel saidHit
Points72854%52%
Rebounds71656%58%
Pts + reb70453%54%
Assists67458%57%
Pts + ast67254%51%
Pts + reb + ast66952%54%
Reb + ast66355%53%
Threes65759%56%
Steals21263%64%
Double-double19383%87%

For each line we take the side the model leaned to. Pushes and lines posted after tip are left out. Updated November 2. The posted picks have their own record on the results page. Small samples swing a lot, so read the bigger groups first.

Best price across sportsbooks for each side, from Unabated's odds feed. Prices move fast, so check the bet slip before placing anything. 21+ only, and not every book is available in every state. Exchanges charge fees, so check those too. Nothing here is betting advice.