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Patrick Mahomes props

KC vs DEN · Sun, Nov 1, 4:25 PM ET

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This week's lines

PropOverUnderModel over
Completions 20.5projects 21-102Novig-111Novig52%
Pass TDs 1.5projects 1+166DraftKings-182Novig35%
Rush yds 12.5projects 13.8-111Novig+106Novig53%
Pass + rush 199.5projects 234.8-310FanDueln/an/a
Pass att 33.5projects 34+100Fanatics-115BetMGMn/a
Pass yds 199.5projects 216.5-200Fanatics+158Kalshin/a
Anytime TD (yes)+614Novign/a14%

Best price across sportsbooks for each side, from Unabated's odds feed. Green = the model's chance beats the price. Prices move fast: check the bet slip before placing.

The numbers

Completions 20.5: over in 2 of the last 6 games, averaging 20.7. The model projects 21 and gives the over 52%. Best over -102 at Novig, best under -111 at Novig.

Pass TDs 1.5: over in 4 of the last 6 games, averaging 1.5. The model projects 1 and gives the over 35%. Best over +166 at DraftKings, best under -182 at Novig.

Rush yds 12.5: over in 4 of the last 6 games, averaging 11.8. The model projects 13.8 and gives the over 53%. Best over -111 at Novig, best under +106 at Novig.

Pass + rush 199.5: over in 5 of the last 6 games, averaging 257.5. The model projects 234.8. Best over -310 at FanDuel.

Pass att 33.5: over in 1 of the last 6 games, averaging 31.8. The model projects 34. Best over +100 at Fanatics, best under -115 at BetMGM.

Pass yds 199.5: over in 4 of the last 6 games, averaging 245.7. The model projects 216.5. Best over -200 at Fanatics, best under +158 at Kalshi.

This season

WeekOppCompletionsPass TDsRush ydsPass + rush
W7@SEA19014179
W6LAC23016288
W4@LV1520225
W3@MIA2021247
W2IND32317399
W1DEN15223207

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