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Derrick Henry props

BAL vs BUF · Sun, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET

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This week's lines

PropOverUnderModel over
Rec yds 6.5projects 0.2-113Novig-109Caesars31%
Receptions 1.5projects 1+155BetMGM-160Novig26%
Rush att 18.5projects 17-100ProphetX-106Novig41%
Rush + rec 89.5projects 82.7-104Novig-105theScore Bet–
Rush yds 79.5projects 76.1-104Novig-110DraftKings–
Anytime TD (yes)-190Novig–60%

Best price across sportsbooks for each side, from Unabated's odds feed. Green = the model's chance beats the price. Prices move fast: check the bet slip before placing.

The numbers

Rec yds 6.5: over in 3 of the last 7 games, averaging 9.7. The model projects 0.2 and gives the over 31%. Best over -113 at Novig, best under -109 at Caesars.

Receptions 1.5: over in 2 of the last 7 games, averaging 1.4. The model projects 1 and gives the over 26%. Best over +155 at BetMGM, best under -160 at Novig.

Rush att 18.5: over in 4 of the last 7 games, averaging 21. The model projects 17 and gives the over 41%. Best over -100 at ProphetX, best under -106 at Novig.

Rush + rec 89.5: over in 2 of the last 7 games, averaging 92.4. The model projects 82.7. Best over -104 at Novig, best under -105 at theScore Bet.

Rush yds 79.5: over in 3 of the last 7 games, averaging 82.7. The model projects 76.1. Best over -104 at Novig, best under -110 at DraftKings.

Anytime TD: scored in 5 of his last 7 games. The model gives him a 60% chance to score. Best price -190 at Novig.

This season

WeekOppRec ydsReceptionsRush attRush + rec
W7CIN411749
W6@CLE211760
W5@ATL18124120
W4TEN622379
W3@DAL012689
W2NO1931687
W1@IND19124163

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