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Baker Mayfield props

TB vs ATL · Sun, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET

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This week's lines

PropOverUnderModel over
Completions 19.5projects 20+102Novig+100BetMGM54%
Pass TDs 1.5projects 1+115theScore Bet-125Novig35%
Pass att 30.5projects 32-104Novig-113Novign/a
Pass yds 199.5projects 209.5-165Fanatics+133Novign/a
Anytime TD (yes)+600BetMGMn/a14%

Best price across sportsbooks for each side, from Unabated's odds feed. Green = the model's chance beats the price. Prices move fast: check the bet slip before placing.

The numbers

Completions 19.5: over in 2 of the last 4 games, averaging 17. The model projects 20 and gives the over 54%. Best over +102 at Novig, best under +100 at BetMGM.

Pass TDs 1.5: over in 0 of the last 4 games, averaging 0.8. The model projects 1 and gives the over 35%. Best over +115 at theScore Bet, best under -125 at Novig.

Pass att 30.5: over in 2 of the last 4 games, averaging 26.8. The model projects 32. Best over -104 at Novig, best under -113 at Novig.

Pass yds 199.5: over in 2 of the last 4 games, averaging 169.8. The model projects 209.5. Best over -165 at Fanatics, best under +133 at Novig.

Anytime TD: scored in 1 of his last 4 games. The model gives him a 14% chance to score. Best price +600 at BetMGM.

This season

WeekOppCompletionsPass TDsPass attPass yds
W7@CAR711164
W3MIN17134217
W2CLE21134182
W1@CIN23028216

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